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The reliable detection of the global 21-cm signal, a key tracer of Cosmic Dawn and the Epoch of Reionization, requires meticulous data modelling and robust statistical frameworks for model validation and comparison. In Paper I of this series, we presented the beam-factor-based chromaticity correction (BFCC) model for spectrometer data processed using BFCC to suppress instrumentally induced spectral structure. We demonstrated that the BFCC model, with complexity calibrated by Bayes factor-based model comparison (BFBMC), enables unbiased recovery of a 21-cm signal consistent with the one reported by The Experiment to Detect the Global Epoch of Reionization Signature (EDGES) from simulated data. Here, we extend the evaluation of the BFCC model to lower amplitude 21-cm signal scenarios where deriving reliable conclusions about a model’s capacity to recover unbiased 21-cm signal estimates using BFBMC is more challenging. Using realistic simulations of chromaticity-corrected EDGES-low spectrometer data, we evaluate three signal amplitude regimes – null, moderate, and high. We then conduct a Bayesian comparison between the BFCC model and three alternative models previously applied to 21-cm signal estimation from EDGES data. To mitigate biases introduced by systematics in the 21-cm signal model fit, we incorporate the Bayesian Null-Test-Evidence-Ratio (BaNTER) validation framework and implement a Bayesian inference workflow based on posterior odds of the validated models. The BaNTER-validated posterior-odds-based methodology presented here is general and transferable to other global 21-cm experiments employing Bayesian signal inference. We demonstrate that, unlike BFBMC alone, this approach consistently recovers 21-cm signal estimates that align with the true signal across all amplitude regimes, advancing robust global 21-cm signal detection methodologies. 

The Haystack Telescope is an antenna with a diameter of 37 m and an elevation-dependent surface accuracy of ≤100μm that is capable of millimeter-wave observations. The radome-enclosed instrument serves as a radar sensor for space situational awareness, with about one-third of the time available for research by MIT Haystack Observatory. Ongoing testing with the K-band (18–26 GHz) and W-band receivers (currently 85–93 GHz) is preparing the inclusion of the telescope into the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) array and the use as a single-dish research telescope. Given its geographic location, the addition of the Haystack Telescope to current and future versions of the EHT array would substantially improve the image quality. 

Context.Sagittarius A* (Sgr A^*), the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, provides a unique laboratory to study accretion dynamics and plasma processes near the event horizon. Aims.We investigated the variability and polarization properties of Sgr A^*using ALMA observations during the 2018 Event Horizon Telescope campaign. Methods.We analyzed high-cadence full-polarization light curves from ALMA at millimeter wavelengths, performed time-series analysis, and investigated the temporal behavior during an X-ray flare observed byChandraon 2018 April 24. The variability characteristics are compared with expectations from standard accretion flow models. Results.We find low variability in total intensity (σ/μ < 10%), but significantly higher variability in linear and circular polarization (∼30% and ∼50%, respectively). A time-series analysis reveals red-noise variability, with power spectral densities between −2 and −3 across all Stokes parameters. Polarized intensity shows stable intra-day timescales, while total intensity exhibits more variable timescales, suggesting distinct emission regions, with polarization likely arising from a coherent structure. On April 24, a statistically significant inter-band delay in polarized intensity coincides with a near-simultaneous X-ray and millimeter peak that deviates from the typical delayed flare scenario. This event also features enhanced millimeter variability and coherent polarization loop evolution. The observed simultaneity challenges standard models of transient synchrotron emission with cooling delays, favoring instead a scenario of continuous energy injection in an optically thin region. Conclusions.Our results offer new constraints on the physical mechanisms driving variability in Sgr A^*, and provide key observational input for refining theoretical models of accretion and plasma behavior in the vicinity of supermassive black holes. 

Abstract Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of the supermassive black hole M87* depict an asymmetric ring of emission. General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models of M87* and its accretion disk predict that the amplitude and location of the ring’s peak brightness asymmetry should fluctuate due to turbulence in the source plasma. We compare the observed distribution of brightness asymmetry amplitudes to the simulated distribution in GRMHD models, across varying black hole spina_*. We show that, for strongly magnetized (MAD) models, three epochs of EHT data marginally disfavor ∣a_*∣ ≲ 0.2. This is consistent with the Blandford–Znajek model for M87’s jet, which predicts that M87* should have nonzero spin. We show quantitatively how future observations could improve spin constraints and discuss how improved spin constraints could distinguish between differing jet-launching mechanisms and black hole growth scenarios. 

Abstract The collimation of relativistic jets launched from the vicinity of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at the centers of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is one of the key questions to understand the nature of AGN jets. However, little is known about the detailed jet structure for AGN like quasars since very high angular resolutions are required to resolve these objects. We present very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of the archetypical quasar 3C 273 at 86 GHz, performed with the Global Millimeter VLBI Array, for the first time including the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array. Our observations achieve a high angular resolution down to ∼60 μ as, resolving the innermost part of the jet ever on scales of ∼10 5 Schwarzschild radii. Our observations, including close-in-time High Sensitivity Array observations of 3C 273 at 15, 22, and 43 GHz, suggest that the inner jet collimates parabolically, while the outer jet expands conically, similar to jets from other nearby low-luminosity AGNs. We discovered the jet collimation break around 10 7 Schwarzschild radii, providing the first compelling evidence for structural transition in a quasar jet. The location of the collimation break for 3C 273 is farther downstream from the sphere of gravitational influence (SGI) from the central SMBH. With the results for other AGN jets, our results show that the end of the collimation zone in AGN jets is governed not only by the SGI of the SMBH but also by the more diverse properties of the central nuclei. 

We investigate the presence and spatial characteristics of the jet base emission in M87* at 230 GHz, enabled by the significantly enhanced (u,v) coverage in the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The integration of the 12−m Kitt Peak Telescope (USA) and NOEMA (France) stations into the array introduces two critical intermediate-length baselines to SMT (USA) and IRAM 30−m (Spain), providing sensitivity to emission structures at spatial scales of ∼250 μas and ∼2500 μas (∼ 0.02 pc and ∼ 0.02 pc). Without these new baselines, previous EHT observations of the source in 2017 and 2018 lacked the capability to constrain emission on large scales, where a “missing flux” of order ∼1 Jy is expected to reside. To probe these scales, we analyzed closure phases–robust against station-based gain calibration errors–and model the jet base emission using a simple Gaussian component offset from the compact ring emission at spatial separations > 100 μas. Our analysis revealed a Gaussian feature centered at (ΔRA ≈ 320 μas, ΔDec. ≈ 60 μ as), projected separation of ≈ 5500 AU, with an estimated flux density of only ∼60 mJy, implying that most of the missing flux identified in previous EHT studies had to originate from different, larger scales. Brighter emission at the relevant spatial scales is firmly ruled out, and the data do not favor more complex models. This component aligns with the inferred position of the large-scale jet and is therefore physically consistent with the emission of the jet base. While our findings point to detectable jet base emission at 230 GHz, the limited coverage provided by only two intermediate baselines limits our ability to robustly reconstruct its morphology. Consequently, we treated the recovered Gaussian as an upper limit on the jet base flux density. Future EHT observations with expanded intermediate baseline coverage will be essential to constrain the structure and nature of this component with higher precision. 

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope 1.3 mm observations of the supermassive binary black hole candidate OJ 287. The observations achieved an unprecedented angular resolution of 18 μas and reveal significant structural and polarization variability over just five days, marking the shortest timescale on which such changes have been directly imaged in this source. The inner jet exhibits a twisted ridgeline structure, with features displaying apparent superluminal motions up to about 22 c. The linear polarization maps reveal three main polarized features whose electric-vector position angles (EVPAs) change substantially over the time span of our observations, including a component with a radial polarization consistent with being produced by a recollimation shock. Most notably, we directly resolved two innermost jet components whose EVPAs rotate in opposite directions. The faster component, moving at 2.4 ± 0.9 μas/day (17.4 ± 6.5 c), exhibits counterclockwise EVPA swings of roughly 3.7° per day, while the slower component, with a proper motion of 1.4 ± 0.3 μas/day (10.2 ± 2.2 c), rotates clockwise at approximately 2.5° per day. Previous studies inferred helical magnetic fields in AGN jets from time-resolved or integrated polarization variability but lacked the angular resolution to directly image this effect. Our results provide spatially resolved evidence that a helical magnetic field threads the jet’s collimation and acceleration zone, ruling out models based on the superposition of unresolved components. Our analysis suggests that propagating shocks interact with a Kelvin–Helmholtz plasma instability, illuminating different phases of the helical magnetic field and producing the observed polarization spatial and temporal variability. Moreover, our model naturally accounts for the more rapid polarization rotation observed in the faster moving component. Our model predicts even more rapid swings in polarization, which could be tested with future observations featuring a more densely sampled time coverage.